US 30-year Treasury yield spikes to 5.34%, highest since 2007
The US 30-year Treasury yield jumped to 5.34%, the highest level since 2007, prompting alarm across Washington. A separate post attributes falling real-yield expectations to Treasury Secretary Bessent's efforts to tame the long end of the curve.
Detected & updated continuously · Source: Nebula
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@Victornguyen10x
THỊ TRƯỜNG TRÁI PHIẾU MỸ SẮP TOANG: LIỀU THUỐC 4 TỶ ĐÔ CỦA BESSENT VÔ TÁC DỤNG Lợi suất trái phiếu Kho bạc Mỹ kỳ hạn 30 năm giật lên mốc 5,34% mức cao nhất chưa từng thấy kể từ năm 2007 còi báo động đã réo khắp Washington. Bessent đã phải tung ra một https://t.co/bkx6TZajm7
@MyNi_Redux
Me a week ago: "Why I Expect $MSTR at $40ish in 8-12 Weeks"; Me this week: "Let's make that 9-13 Weeks." — # The One-week Postmortem My piece from last week: "Why I Expect $MSTR at $40ish in 8-12 Weeks" seems to be aging poorly. BTC is up 19%, MSTR, 29%. While the put spreads I've legged into are down between 5% and 50%, depending on when I got in. Am I giving up? Not yet. Because ~~the market is wrong~~ the tide is still going out. Imho, this move was an unanticipated spasm brought on by Bessent's trying to tame the long end, thereby causing **expectations of real yields to fall**. Which makes hard assets go up. This catalyst triggered heavy buying of bitcoin and call options, which caused over-leveraged shorts to get liquidated. And the more prices rose, the more people bought, and the more shorts got liquidated. A bona fide FOMO+momentum run with a side of and gamma tailwind. Bitcoin - and therefore MSTR - will continue to beat the tide of liquidity going out if it has a strong motor to counteract it. # Invalidation of the Bearish Outlook Wen It's normal for price to pull back a bit after such a strong run-up. That in and of itself won't mean much. However, I'd consider the bearish regime over if price finds support at the 200SMA/0.618Fib/$69K. A rebound from there would make for a higher low with support, and it would signal that the bear is dead. And so are my put spreads. # A Boating Accident Waiting to Happen? While we wait for that to play out, here are a few things worth taking into consideration. **1. Regular trading hours price action:** Market juiced BTC sharply higher overnight, then spent the entire regular session deciding if that new price was justified. IBIT (left) managed green candles; MSTR (right) had red ones. Who's driving the boat? **2. Option skew:** IBIT and MSTR calls are highly overpriced compared to historical, and puts are hella cheap. Suggests players are all on one side of the boat. **3. Cramer likes Bitcoin now.** Yes, the village drunk is in the boat. **4. The tide is still going out.** Right now, Bitcoin is sticking out like a green dildo rising from the receding waves. No ifs and buts about this.. it's gorgeous. **Positions:** As noted above, have a bunch of put spreads. Have not put on LETFs yet.