The inference layer for human behaviour.

Behavioural simulation over live global events, resolved into the instruments that each outcome moves.

Cross-platform event indexing

Events surface across X, Reddit, Truth Social, newswires, public filings and prediction markets. Each one resolves to the actors and instruments it touches and stacks into a continuous historical record.

XRedditTruth SocialNewswiresPublic filingsPrediction markets

T + 0hForecast

Supreme National Security Council

Telegraphed strike on a US base46%0.71 confidence

No response, negotiate24%

Harass Gulf shipping19%

Close the Strait of Hormuz11%

$BRENT−7.2%$WTI−7.2%$SPX+1.11%$NDX+1.43%$BTC+2.1%

Brent · 48hunder Iran strikes a US base · Hormuz stays open

$80$76$72$6822 Jun · $77.01median $71.4 · actual $71.48

48h settle$783%$766%$7411%$7314%$7218%$7121%$7013%$698%$684%$672%

World scenario · 03

Shipping harassed in the Gulf. The strait stays open.

Description: Traffic squeezed but never stopped. War-risk premiums spike and crude keeps its bid.
Probability: 0.19
Confidence: 0.44
Key actors: Iran · Gulf shipping · Marine insurers
Affected assets: $BRENT, $WTI, $SPX, $XLE
Outcome: Did not occur

World scenario · 02

No kinetic response. Talks resume inside a week.

Description: Iran absorbs the strike and returns to the table. Crude drifts lower on relief rather than falling.
Probability: 0.24
Confidence: 0.58
Key actors: Iran · United States · Oman
Affected assets: $BRENT, $WTI, $SPX
Outcome: Did not occur

World scenario · 01

Description
Probability
Confidence
Key actors
Affected assets
Outcome

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